(사진제공=AP)
[뉴욕=AP/KNS뉴스통신] 유럽정상회의에서 유로존을 포함한 유럽연합이 각국의 예산을 감독하고 부채가 급격하게 증가하면 벌금을 부과하기로 결정하면서 세계의 금융계가 한숨을 돌린 것처럼 보이지만 월스트리트 전문가들은 실제로 이러한 합의안을 각국의회가 적극적으로 비준할 것인가와 그리스, 이탈리아, 스페인의 부채에 대한 단기적 해결책이 부족하고 유럽중앙은행의 장래 통화정책의 추이에 대한 의문을 내놓고 있다.
또한 장기적 해결책 보다는 단기적 현 위기의 해결책이 없다는 우려가 불식되지 않고 있는데 그리스 국가부도와 이탈리아의 부채문제가 해결되지 않고 있기 때문이다.
유럽중앙은행의 역할이 부실은행이 부도직전에 물렸을 때 중앙은행이 최종책임을 질것이냐 하는 것도 확실하지 않다.
각 회원 국가들이 적자예산과 부채문제에 강제적인 입법조치에 합의한 것에 의미를 부여할 수 있으나 유럽 전 지역에 경제성장이 늦어지고 내년에는 불황이 예상되는 상항에서 도출된 합의를 실제 법으로 비준시키는 것이 힘들 것이다. 각국 정부가 비준할 때 까지는 유럽의 경제위기가 불식되기 어려워 보인다.
유럽정상들은 유럽중앙은행으로 하여금 시장에 많은 현금을 제공하기로 하면서 은행이 담보를 제공하는 한 3년 동안 자금을 제공하기로 결정했다. 유럽중앙은행이 양적완화정책을 계속할 것이나 내년 상반기에 만기가 도래하는 1조8천억 유로의 채권에 대한 해결책이 문제가 되고 있다.
(영문기사 원문)
Wall Street experts weigh in on EU budget deal
NEW YORK (AP) — The financial world initially rejoiced Friday when word came of a deal by most European countries — including all 17 that use the euro — to allow the European Commission to oversee national budgets and impose penalties if a country's debt grows too much.
Since then questions have emerged about the willingness of each individual country to ratify the agreement, the lack of a short-term solution to high debt in Greece, Italy and Spain, and what the future monetary policy of the European Central Bank will be.
There's a long-term solution in place but there's no solution to the current crisis. There's still the prospect of default on Greek bonds and there's still problems faced by Italy meeting the financing obligations moving forward. It is a welcome first step. I think there's widespread recognition that it's going to be a long process one way or another.
There are a lot of questions that still remain. One of them is the role of the European Central Bank as a lender of last resort. The ECB has made it clear that they are willing to undertake the role of lender of last resort to banks but there's a question of to what extent will the ECB be lender of last resort to countries.
The member states did agree to some legislation that would be more binding in terms of the deficits and debt. It would be overseen by the European courts.
I see two problems. One is that overall growth is slowing throughout the region. Germany is the bright spot. Most economists, including ourselves, have (forecast) a mild recession for next year. With slowing growth, it's hard to get good budget numbers. Second, the agreement has been made but the laws haven't been passed and signed.
Until these laws are passed, there are going to be scares. There's going to continue to be volatility coming from this region.
On the eve of the European summit, the ECB provided an incredible amount of liquidity to the market. I don't know if the market fully appreciates that yet. They were willing to loan money to banks for three years. We're not talking about a short-term, one-week loan. This is a three-year loan essentially. As much as they want, provided they have the collateral, which they also liberalized the definition of.
The ECB is still going to have to ease policy. They still have something on the magnitude of 1.8 trillion euros ($2.41 trillion) of bonds maturing, concentrated in the first half of next year.
김희광 기자 april4241@naver.com
